“We eagerly anticipate the coming on stream of the Kaduna, Warzi, and Port Harcourt refineries before the end of this year; as promised by the Group Chief ExecutiveOfficer(GCEO) of NNPCL, MeleKoloKyari
This milestone will not only end all baseless rumours of monopoly, but also position Nigeria as a refining hub for petroleum products in Africa.” Dangote Group, Vanguard, November 6, 2024.
The second part of this article, which might not be the last, started where the first one did two weeks ago.
The Dangote Group, in its brazen attempt to mislead Nigerians, had swallowed the drivel peddled by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, NNPCL, and its GMCEO, Mele Kolo Kyari, about Nigeria’s four refineries in Kaduna, Warri and Port Harcourt.
To be quite candid, I felt embarrassed for the Dangote Group for falling so easily for NNPCL and Mele Kolo Kyari falsehoods.
Dangote Group either believed that the four refineries would be producing fuel by December, which is obviously ridiculous; or they knew it was untrue and just promoted it in order to gain advantage – which is not honourable. Since every lie has an expiry date, we are now in December.
First, NNPCL has announced that fuel supply might not be possible this month from the Port Harcourt refinery. They are not even talking about Warri; and Kaduna refinery might as well be a plant on the moon.
Nigerians were being deceived to place their hopes on the four biggest scams in Nigeria based on the words of Mr Kyari – whose record of uttering untruths will be difficult to break by any public official after him.
The NNPCL, under Kyari, had promised, and failed, to deliver on fuel supply more than seven times since August 2023. That is not all.
“NUPRC Data Contradicts NINPCL is 1.8 million BPD Oil Production Claim.”
Report, November 24, 2024.
Lawyers know very well that before calling a person as your witness, it is best to ensure that he/she has credibility.
Dangote resting its case on the utterances of the GMDNNPCL was a blunder. The man’s credibility has been totally destroyed by his own words.
Back in July, in a rare appearance before a National Assembly, NASS, Committee, he announced that crude oil production would reach 2mbpd by December and Nigeria would be exporting fuel because the refineries would be working.
This is another December; and the refineries are not producing fuel. That was bad enough. In the middle of November, NNPCL suddenly announced that Nigeria was producing 1.8 mbpd of crude and was well on its way to making 2 mopd.
The reaction was swift to debunk the rumour. OPEC was the first to set the record straight by announcing that its own records revealed that Nigeria produced 1.45mbpd of crude in October. NUPRC recently announced that the output was 1,535mbpd, and that summarises the credibility or lack of it of NPCL as a witness.
Why Is Dangote Suing Everybody?
“A man alone hasn’t got a chance.” Ernest Hemingway, 1891-1961
Only in those “action” Chinese films does a single person take on over hundred well-trained fighters and beat them all. In real life, groups frequently win.
Dangote is currently in court against several Independent Marketers,MOMAN and the NNPCL. In a free market, one supplier, which cannot now guarantee regular supply at the best price possible, had tried to arm-twist the Federal Government to grant it the sole right to supply certain government controlled entities.
The same company forced the government to order NNPCL to lift petrol from its refineries.
Most importantly, it is seeking a court order prohibiting importation of petrol despite the glaring inability of Dangote Refinery to meet domestic demands at present. Yet, the company denied monopolistic tendencies. What further proof is needed?
Dangote and every honest observer know that the Dangote Refinery cannot now supply our national requirements for petrol. Even the village idiot should by now realise that waiting for Nigeria’s four refineries is a bloody waste of time and hope.
None of them, if started will operate for six months before breaking down again. Is the nation’s economy supposed to be yoked to these hopeless sources of supply?
To buttress the point being made here, Dangote refinery recently raised alarm that NPCL has failed to deliver the crude oil allocation promised.
The refinery has once again embarked on importing crude oil, which we have in abundance, from the US, paying dollars – while trying to stop others from importing fuel; which we don’t have enough of. In whose interest is that?
As a consumer, among millions, it is difficult to see how Dangote buying crude for dollars, while trying to stop the importation of fuel benefits me; and why I should support Dangote’s quest for complete control of the petroleum sector.
Meanwhile, imported fuel has been less expensive than fuel from Dangote refinery. Are Nigerian consumers supposed to pay a premium in order to keep Dangote in business? It is doubtful.
The recent announcement of N970/itre lifting price from Dangote refinery is just a desperate attempt to engage in damage control.
The attempt to brow-beat fellow Nigerians into supporting the quest for absolute control by appealing to patriotism and promising jobs has obviously failed.
Nigerians want fuel at the lowest price and they don’t care where it comes from. Dangote is now adopting the age-long strategy of penetration pricing which calls for a new supplier to offer lower prices to attract customers; gain market share and then increase prices later.
All those are legitimate competitive strategies. What is unfair is for Dangote refinery to arrogate patriotism only to itself. All the stakeholders are making substantial contributions to the Nigerian economy under challenging conditions.
Neither is it right for Dangote to cast aspersions on the quality of their products without cause. Competition is in the nation’s interest and on no account should any company seek monopoly in their own selfish interest.
Dangote’s Real Enemy Is Not Iom
Most individuals and organisations fight the wrong adversaries. The real enemies of Dangote Refinery are not the Independent Marketers and importers.
The major antagonists are time and technology as well as the consequences they will have for fuel refineries. Dangote and other Nigerian refineries just starting up are like late comers to a party about to break up.
The race to introduce new alternative energy and power sources in the advanced economies has already doomed refineries. As more vehicles run on hydrogen, ammonia, electricity etc., refineries have started to close down. Those still operating have long made their money and can afford to sell cheaper fuel to Africa.
Consequently, the Independent Marketers, unshackled by a refinery can shop around for the best deals; unlike Dangote which is tied down to its refinery.
Nigerian stakeholders are not in control of the time when global crude demand might dwindle to a trickle and fossil fuel will become outdated. But, it certainly will not be as long as the life span of a typical refinery.
Nigerian venture into serious refining is coming too late for us.
Clearly, instead of waging war against every other stakeholder, Dangote would be better advised to seek collaboration with others in order to achieve an orderly transition to a Nigeria without dependence on crude oil.
Then we will face hell.
By Dele Sobowale @TheINDEPENDENT
