There are those who have sought to draw parallels between Prime Minister, Alhaji Tafawa Balewa’s declaration of a State Of Emergency in the Western Region in the First Republic and the dissolution of the region’s democratic institutions and President Bola Tinubu’s similar action this week to address the obvious drift to anarchy in Rivers State where a debilitating political crisis had festered paralyzing governance for the better part of the last one and a half years. However, it is not a particularly accurate attempt at establishing historical equivalence.
The State of Emergency imposed on the Western Region by the ruling Northern Peoples Congress (NPC)/National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) coalition at the centre was a premeditated and calculated plan by the federal government to obstruct, disrupt and dismantle democratic governance in the West, dislodge the ruling Action Group (AG) in the region, politically castrate the leader of the AG, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, who as Leader of the Opposition was perceived as an implacable thorn in the flesh of the ruling federal coalition and impose on the region a servile leadership more amenable to external control and manipulation.
Thus, it was not the declaration of the State of Emergency in 1962 that instigated the widespread violence and unrest (operation wetie) that engulfed the Western Region and ultimately resulted in the collapse of the First Republic but rather the brazen rigging of the 1964 Western Regional elections that sought to foist the unpopular SLA Akintola-led Nigerian National Democratic Party (NNDP) on the people. In the Western Region, there was no breakdown of law and order anywhere in the region that prompted Balewa’s action but an instigated fracas by the minority in the Western Regional House of Assembly to prevent the majority from exercising its constitutional right to remove the Premier, Chief SLA Akintola, from office and appoint a new Premier. Balewa’s action in the West was the equivalent of a coup de tat which President Tinubu’s intervention in the continuously degenerating crisis in Rivers State could by no means be described as being.
In Rivers State, the protracted crisis between the immediate past governor of the state and now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Mr Nyesom Wike, and his successor, Sir Similayi Fubara, had resulted in the criminal demolition of the premises of the state legislature to prevent the suspected planned impeachment of the governor, the consequent incapacitation of the legislature, the running of the affairs of the state with four out of 32 legislators, the holding of local government elections in defiance of a court order all culminating in the Supreme Court judgement of Friday, February 28, that stripped the Fubara government of any veneer of legitimacy.
In the aftermath of the apex court decision, the majority faction of the legitimated Assembly initiated moves to commence the impeachment of Fubara and his Deputy which elicited threats by some militant ethnic-based groups to unleash violence in the state including the sabotage and crippling of the country’s vital oil pipelines. Governor Fubara himself had earlier, during the commissioning of a project, asked youths in the state to be calm and wait for instructions which would be given at the appropriate time. A few hours before President Tinubu declared the State of Emergency and suspended the executive and legislative arms of government, there had been explosions on at least two critical oil pipelines in the state and with no record of the governor as Chief Security Officer of the State warning against such actions or even convening a security council meeting to deliberate on strategies to contain the situation and prevent further deterioration.
It is needless here to join the now largely academic debate on whether or not the President should have acted preemptively to avoid a descent to anarchy or the appropriateness of suspending democratic structures when declaring a State Of Emergency when a conflict between the executive and legislature in the state is central to the crisis.
At the root of the crisis that has resulted in the unfortunate paralysis of democracy in Rivers State at least for the next six months in the first instance, is the self-sabotaging unwisdom of the contending individuals and groups in the politics of the state and this is not a characteristic that is peculiar to Rivers State. Rather, it is a feature of the political behaviour and culture of Nigeria’s political class across time and space which has led to debilitating systemic breakdowns at various times in the country’s political evolution.
There is no doubt that the verdict of the Supreme Court amounted in reality to a decisive and massive victory for the pro-Wike forces in their battle with Fubara for the control of the soul of Rivers State. But was it a sign of wisdom or even strategic astuteness for them to have continued to push for the impeachment of the governor when they had him practically trapped and at their mercy? Moreso, Fubara had already shown signs of softening his hard-line stance and stated his preparedness to implement the decisions of the Supreme Court, a matter in which he had little choice in any case. From the limited but significant triumph that the Supreme Court judgement meant to them, Wike and his supporters wanted overwhelming victory and the total political vanquishing of their opponents in Rivers State including the impeachment or maximum humiliation of the governor. It was unnecessary.
Writing on the conflict between Awolowo and Akintola that degenerated to anarchy in the Western Region with all sides ultimately losing out, Professor Larry Diamond noted that “But neither was the Awolowo faction impressive in its commitment to the democratic rules of the game. While less flagrant in its abuses, it, too, manipulated the system in dubious ways for short-term gain: desperately trying to avoid a dissolution of the Western House that would necessitate a new election, secretly removing Akintola through petition before a House meeting, and rejecting, at every crucial point before the Emergency when it had the upper hand, any real compromise with Akintola”. Diamond could well have been talking about the Wike faction which squandered the upper hand that the Supreme Court judgement gave it and pursued a course of action that could most likely have led to widespread violence but for the President’s State of Emergency that demobilized all the contending factions.
None of this is to downplay the gravity of the Governor’s constitutional infractions which were appropriately articulated by the Attorney-General of the Federation, Mr Lateef Fagbemi (SAN). Supervising the demolition of the House of Assembly structure and relocating the four legislators loyal to him to operate from the government house and illegally pass the state’s appropriation bill as well as approve the list of commissioners constitute the height of impunity. There is also the moral question of the governor turning so viciously and vehemently against his predecessor without whose support he could never have attained the position. But the unwisdom in Mr Wike’s widely perceived extremist utterances, his uncompromising stance and sometimes disdainful and dismissive attitude to the governor and his supporters elicited some degree of sympathy for Fubara who was perceived as the underdog.
Beyond this, the conflict between the two had begun to assume ethnic undertones that could have complicated matters and aggravated the possibility of violence had attempts to impeach the governor continued. The truth is that Wike most likely acted impulsively in supporting Fubara as his successor rather than with the requisite care, diligence and meticulous consideration needed for such a decision. Having made that grievous error which revealed his inability to correctly assess and judge human character and leadership potential, the Minister should have handled the fallout in a less combustible manner and in a way that would not constitute a political liability for President Tinubu given his key position as a member of the Federal Executive Council (FEC).
On his part, Fubara’s inability to more subtly and strategically manage his relationship with his predecessor and benefactor no matter the excesses of the latter exposes his naivety, political inexperience and deficiency of emotional intelligence. It is also a measure of his leadership capability that he has been unable to utilize the influence of his office to win greater support from the legislative arm of government but chose to antagonize the majority of the legislators till everybody was sent packing at least for six months. He is the greatest loser in the unfolding scenario in Rivers State and will most likely find out that most of those that urged him on in his confrontation with Wike were doing so not out of any sense of loyalty or commitment but for what they could benefit materially from the position he occupied. Sadly, the various leaders and elders in the state also took positions not dictated by the common good of the people of Rivers State but considerations of personal interest.
At the inception of the crisis, President Tinubu convened a meeting of the contended parties with elders and respected statesmen from the state in attendance with a view to finding an amicable solution to the crisis. Unfortunately, the terms of the agreement which all the parties signed to at the meeting was subsequently jettisoned with people digging into entrenched and inflexible positions until the President wielded the big stick. But given his considerable political experience, strategic astuteness and the weight and authority of his office, President Tinubu is still in the best position to broker an acceptable peace that can usher Rivers State back to normalcy and such a feat will earn him considerable political capital.
The Vanguard newspaper in its editorial of Tuesday, March 18, advised that “In this kind of situation, “might” may not be”right “. The two sides may not be in the mood to exercise diplomacy and implement the verdict through consensus. That was exactly the situation that the Lagos Assembly men and women found themselves in until the President intervened in a fatherly manner. We call on him to adopt the same attitude towards the implementation of the Supreme Court verdict in Rivers State”.
In conclusion, the Vanguard suggested that “the President holds private talks with Governor Fubara and Minister Wike and commit them to peace and hold them responsible in case of a breach of the peace. …No side should be allowed to push its luck too far. Everything must be done to preserve the peace”. President Tinubu can break the vicious cycle of unwisdom in Rivers.
By Segun Ayobolu
