Nigerian nationals have emerged as the top nationality transitioning from study-related visas to non-study visas within three year.
This is according to the “Reason for international migration, international students update: November 2024” report by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The data highlights a significant trend of Nigerian migrants leveraging the UK’s visa system for long-term residency or employment opportunities.
What they are saying
The UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) stated in its publication that latest estimate of net migration to the UK for the year to June 2024 had risen to a whopping 906,000.
This is a revision from the previous estimate of 728,000, shocking the government. In response, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer stated in a press conference that his government will imminently publish a white paper that will set out plans for reducing the number of imigrants entering the UK.
He called the incident a “failure” and that it happened by “design” and not by “accident” stating that his government will turn the page.
Nigerians lead in transitioning to non-study visas
The ONS report highlights that, among the top five nationalities entering the UK on study-related visas, Nigerian nationals were most likely to transition to non-study visas within three years.
The report reveals that for the cohort of year-ending (YE) June 2019, 24% of Nigerian nationals on study-related visas transitioned to a different visa type after three years.
This figure surged to 76% for the YE June 2021 cohort, representing a remarkable 52 percentage point increase.
In other words, 76% of Nigerians who apply for study visas changed from study visas to other visas to enable them remain in the country.
This positions Nigerian nationals as the group with the highest proportion of visa transitions compared to other nationalities.
By comparison, Chinese nationals recorded the lowest rate of transitions for both the YE June 2019 and YE June 2021 cohorts.
Nonetheless, a 16-percentage point increase was observed over the two periods, indicating a general upward trend across nationalities in transitioning to non-study visas.
Dependants surpass students among Nigerian migrants
The report also highlights a sharp rise in the number of Nigerians entering the UK on study-dependant visas in recent years. By YE June 2023, dependants accounted for 55% of Nigerian study-related visas, surpassing students, who represented 45%.
This marks a significant shift from YE June 2019, when students made up 79% of the total, and dependants were just 21%.
This trend mirrors a broader increase in study-dependant visa arrivals among Nigerian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi nationals from YE June 2019 to YE June 2023.
However, policy changes implemented in June 2024 led to a decline in the number of dependants immigrating.
Nigerian and Indian students driving growth
The data shows that Nigerian students have been a key driver of the growth in UK international student numbers.
Between YE June 2019 and YE June 2023, the number of Nigerian students increased from 3,600 to 45,400, reflecting a significant surge. India also recorded a dramatic rise, with student numbers increasing from 14,200 to 102,600 over the same period.
Both Nigeria and India are considered “headline markets” for the UK’s international student recruitment efforts, supported by initiatives such as the British Council’s Study UK programme and GREAT Scholarships.
These programmes aim to promote UK education in key international markets.
Why immigration is rising in the UK
The surge in visa transitions and international student numbers comes amidst the UK government’s struggle to address workforce gaps.
Speaking on the issue, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak acknowledged the challenges facing the country’s labor market:
“Because clearly – the vast majority of people who entered this country did so to plug gaps in our workforce.
Skills shortages across the country… Which have left our economy hopelessly reliant on immigration…
2.8 million people out of work on long-term sickness – a problem ignored, left to fester. One in 8 young people not in employment or education or training. Sectors of our economy, like engineering… Where apprenticeships have almost halved in the last decade, while visas have doubled.”
The Prime Minister further emphasized a shift in strategy, stating, “We will publish a White Paper imminently – which sets out a plan to reduce immigration.”
Implications for migration policy
The surge in transitions from study visas to non-study visas reflects how migrants from certain nationalities, particularly Nigerians, are utilising the UK visa system as a gateway to longer-term opportunities.
This trend is consistent with recent revisions to long-term international migration estimates, suggesting that visa transitions are becoming increasingly common.
While the report notes that estimates for YE June 2024 remain provisional and subject to revision, it highlights the importance of education as a pathway to residency and employment for international students, especially Nigerians..
As the UK moves to tighten its immigration policies in response to evolving trends, these changes could significantly impact Nigerian nationals.
The high proportion of Nigerians transitioning from study visas to non-study visas underscores their pivotal role in shaping the UK’s migration dynamics. However, stricter visa rules could drastically reduce the number of Nigerians obtaining UK visas abroad.
Additionally, for those already in the UK, the tightening of pathways to switch from student visas to work visas poses a serious challenge. This could force many to return home, disrupting aspirations for long-term residency or employment in the UK.
By Chigozirim Enyinnia- @Nairametrics
