As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu approaches the two-year mark of his presidency on May 29, 2025, it is an opportune moment to evaluate his leadership trajectory. Drawing from his extensive experience as a senator and two-term governor of Lagos State, the nation’s economic powerhouse, Tinubu entered office with a reputation for pragmatism and reform. However, the realities of governance at the national level have presented challenges that merit a balanced critique.
Economic Reform or Economic Hardship?
President Tinubu’s administration embarked on ambitious economic reforms, notably the removal of the fuel subsidy and the unification of the naira exchange rate. While these measures aimed to address fiscal imbalances and attract foreign investment, they have had profound implications for the average Nigerian. Fuel prices surged from N198 to over N1,000 per litre, leading to a dramatic increase in transportation and production costs. Consequently, inflation soared to over 34 percent in mid-2024, with staple foods like rice and beans becoming increasingly unaffordable.
Despite these challenges, the administration projected a modest economic growth rate of 4.17 percent for 2025. However, this growth is insufficient to offset the rising poverty levels and unemployment, which have been exacerbated by the economic reforms. The government’s failure to implement effective social safety nets has left many Nigerians grappling with the consequences of these policies.
Employment and Business Climate: A Mixed Bag
The removal of fuel subsidies has had a significant impact on employment and the business environment. According to a study by the African Journal of Social Sciences and Management Research, the policy change led to increased operational costs for businesses, resulting in layoffs and reduced hiring across various sectors. While exact unemployment figures post-subsidy removal are still being compiled, anecdotal evidence suggests a rise in joblessness, particularly in the transportation and manufacturing industries.
On the business front, Nigeria has witnessed both exits and entries. Notably, Microsoft’s closure of its Africa Development Centre in 2024 marked a significant exit from the country’s tech sector. Conversely, the government reports securing $50.8 billion in proposed investments from President Tinubu’s foreign trips. However, the actualisation of these commitments remains to be seen, and the net effect on the business climate is still unfolding.
Foreign Policy: Navigating Regional Challenges
President Tinubu’s foreign policy has been tested by the withdrawal of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). These countries, now forming the Alliance of Sahel States, have shifted their alliances, complicating Nigeria’s regional leadership role. While the administration has engaged in diplomatic efforts, including supporting mediation initiatives, the effectiveness of these strategies in restoring regional cohesion is yet to be determined.
Security: A Persistent Challenge
Security remains a critical concern under President Tinubu’s leadership. In the northeast, a resurgence of jihadist violence has been reported, with Boko Haram and its splinter group Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) escalating attacks. Notably, at least 48 people were killed in recent attacks across Adamawa and Borno states, with the use of advanced tactics such as armed drones and roadside explosives.
The government’s response to the Fulani herdsmen crisis and the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) agitation has been marked by a combination of military action and political rhetoric, but with limited tangible results. In the Middle Belt and parts of the South, violent clashes between herders and farming communities have continued, with over 1,000 reported deaths in Plateau State alone between late 2023 and early 2024. Despite promises of security reform, there has been no significant national strategy to resolve the root causes of the conflict, such as land use and pastoral regulation. Meanwhile, in the Southeast, IPOB’s calls for Biafran independence have been met with intensified military operations, including frequent raids and arrests. These measures, however, have not quelled the unrest, with incidents of sit-at-home enforcement, kidnappings, and targeted killings still occurring regularly.
The administration’s largely force-driven approach has so far struggled to achieve sustainable peace or meaningful dialogue.
Governance and Democratic Practices
The administration’s commitment to the rule of law and democratic principles has been questioned. The declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State amidst constitutional implications and the banning of a critical song by artist Eedris Abdulkareem, citing public decency violations, have raised concerns about decentralisation of power and freedom of expression. Such actions contribute to perceptions of an increasingly authoritarian governance style, reminiscent of previous military regimes.
Moreover, the concentration of federal appointments among a select group has sparked debates about federal character and potential nepotism. These practices undermine the principles of inclusivity and equity that are foundational to Nigeria’s democracy.
Conclusion
As President Tinubu approaches the midpoint of his term, the nation stands at a crossroads. His leadership, characterised by bold reforms and a commitment to national development, has faced significant challenges. The economic hardships endured by citizens, persistent security threats, concerns over democratic practices, and the centralization of political power necessitate a reevaluation of policies and strategies.
For Nigeria to realise its potential, it requires leadership that is not only visionary but also responsive to the needs and aspirations of its people. A balanced approach that combines reform with compassion, authority with accountability, and ambition with inclusivity will be essential in navigating the complexities of governance in the coming years.
Dike is a dynamic Nigerian-Canadian economist, educator, and thought leader based in Calgary, Canada. A college professor and host of a widely followed weekly podcast, he bridges academia, public policy, and media with ease.
Jude Dike @ThisDay
