The reforms in the electricity sector are also accelerating investment in gas recovery, instead of being flared as has been the case since 1967 when oil was first discovered in Oloibiri, Bayelsa State.
That is not all, as new investments in oil/ gas processing facilities, not just in crude oil extraction, as we have been doing since 1967, would boost productivity and create more jobs for teeming Nigerian youths.
Apart from Dangote mega refinery that came on stream a few months ago, multiple refineries are also being set up, although they are modular and of small capacity.
When our country becomes energy-independent by not importing petrol and diesel, as Alh. Aliko Dangote, President of Dangote refinery, has promised, the pressure on the naira would be reduced and the exchange rate may become less volatile just as inflation would also go down in tandem.
Clearly, religious insurgency and banditry in the hinterlands are some of the forces driving up food inflation. As opposed to applying same methodology relied on by his predecessors, President Tinubu could be looking at more technological ways of addressing the insecurity challenges. That would be a paradigm shift from the erstwhile kinetic approach of Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo and Muhammadu Buhari who are ex-soldiers that believe in war, war as opposed to jaw jaw in their attempts to restore and guaranty security of lives and properties of Nigerians by reining in the enemies of state that have taken up arms against our country in the last two decades.
The removal of subsidy on electricity following the reformed electricity law of 2023 that has also further opened up the sector for more private sector investments in renewable energy such as solar power which most Nigerians are currently embracing in the light of the high cost of electricity powered by fossil fuel that is expensive. That is another reason to be optimistic.
Although about 12 million consumers (15% of electricity users) have been tagged Band A consumers who have to pay higher tariffs of N244 per kilowatt, which has also negatively impacted the cost of living at the initial stage, since manufacturers are passing the cost to consumers.
Ultimately, the high tariffs for Band A consumers would come down as more electricity suppliers come on stream with the price of electricity to consumers coming down due to competition.
We witnessed the rise of costs with the introduction of GSM telephony some twenty-four years ago and a subsequent drop in cost of telephone calls a couple of years after the cost of technology had been significantly recouped.
The positive effect of the reform policy in the electricity sector is that higher tariff is also positively driving up interest in harnessing our natural gas potentials that had been left fallow all these 61 years of discovery of crude oil in commercial quantity in Nigeria.
For instance, some owners of GenCos may sell off their equity to or go into partnerships with some new investors, including state governments and very likely international investors such as Siemens of Germany that had shunned Nigeria when the sector was being unbundled.
Incidentally, the partial removal of subsidy on electricity via increase in the tariff for Band A consumers has also resulted in more responsible use of electricity by consumers who used to be nonchalant owing to its subsidized cost, but are currently turning off gadgets when they are not necessary.
What is more, with the new arrangement encapsulated in the new law passed by the incumbent administration, the ideal concept of zoning the country to different players in the electricity power sector as practised in other climes may be in the offing.
One can go on and on but my point is made by the fact President Tinubu has spent the first one year working on policy formulation, hence we have seen him tweak and calibrate some policies with a view to making them fit for purpose, which is a trait that some pundits are railing against.
Also, from an engineering perspective, the first one year of Tinubu in the saddle as president to me is like the time that engineers spend designing a bridge and commence the pilling work and posting into the ground the huge pipes, columns and beams that would serve as the super structure holding the bridge up.
In the course of putting the super structure of the bridge in place, there would be vibrations and tremor in the environment, which would be to the discomfort of those who live there.
The tremors in the engineering analogy equates to the hardships currently being experienced by Nigerians arising from the policies that have not only disrupted, but destroyed old and entrenched ways of doing things that have literally been bleeding our country’s economy to its nearly dead situation.
Not until that process is concluded and the people start seeing the slabs and ramps for the bridge under construction being mounted on top of the super structure, they won’t realize that something critical is being done to fundamentally change their lives for good.
Call me an incorrigible optimist, I won’t begrudge readers. But there is a breaking point which is another one year, making it a total of 24 months of President Tinubu holding sway in Aso Rock Villa.
If the expectations of the anticipated positive changes do not start manifesting positive results in the next 12 months, Nigerians would be justified if they get impatient with government and express disappointment in the regime. But President Tinubu has a positive reputation for not disappointing in leadership capacity as he has penchant for and he is famous for pulling hat tricks like a maverick in politics.
In that regard, his presidency might have had a wobbly start due to the enormity of the challenges inherited, but he hardly disappoints.
As the wife of the president, Senator Oluremi Tinubu has reminded skeptics, Lagos State did not overnight become successful and a positive reference point for moving from decadence to excellency without initial heavy lifting by President Tinubu as the governor.
So, declaring that President Tinubu has failed after only one year of taking control of the reins of political power on May 29, 2023, is hasty and unfair in my reckoning.
In my view, Thisday columnist, Dr. Chidi Amuta, in his piece titled, ‘A Year In Purgatory’, which is a review of Tinubu’s first year in office published in his column, last week, best described a typical timetable for a politician upon assumption of office.
He wrote: “Twenty five years of unbroken democracy in Nigeria has taught me something about presidential democracy. The four-year cycles between administrations resolves into three time segments. The first year is for learning the ropes, making mistakes and stumbling to establish an identity. The next two years are for effective governance and head-on confrontation with the promises that inspired a particular presidency. The final year is for succession politics, playing to be reelected if possible.”
My take away from President Tinubu’s first year in office is that he is implementing his Renewed Hope agenda meticulously and aggressively.
Like a man in a hurry, he has been intentional in making remarkable impact on Nigerian society.
Tinubu’s effect on Nigerians ranges from subsidy removal in petrol price to rejigging of the financial services as reflected by the rationalization of a number of bureau de-change, taking over the management of some ailing banks and withdrawal of the operating licence of Heritage Bank, as well as changing the narrative in the electricity energy sector to boost industrialization via reforms, spurring new investments in the sector; up to altering the landscape of the education sector via a revitalization of the knowledge economy through soft loan to students in higher institutions evidenced by the newly operationalized Nigeria Education Loan Fund, NELF.
It is quite striking and commendable that Tinubu did not fall into the trap of planning and not implementing which defined the reign of President Goodluck Jonathan, who planned to remove subsidy on petrol way back in 2013 but bucked under the pressure of the opposition parties. He also spent billions of naira funding a national Confab that came up with robust proposals to turn our country around, but not being conscious of time as being a very precious element in politics, in the manner that President Tinubu is currently doing, he failed to implement the Confab recommendations because he naively felt that he was guaranteed to win the 2015 elections after which he would operationalize the very lofty propositions contained in the Confab report.
Consider the reforms initiated during General Ibrahim Babangida’s tenure, notably the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP). Despite significant national discourse and the rejection of an IMF loan, pressure from Nigerians, akin to the current clamor for the reversal of the reforms so far introduced by Tinubu, led to a coup d’état that ousted the reformist General Babangida.
Consequently, the strides made through partial SAP implementation were undone, regressing the nation’s economy to archaic trade practices. This setback exacerbated the economic plight of Nigerians, worsening their conditions beyond the pre-SAP era.
Should President Tinubu succumb to the call for a reversal of the reform policies that he has introduced so far with the aim of emancipating Nigeria and Nigerians from perpetual poverty because they have not like magic wands turned our country into an Eldorado?
Identifying and recalling unimplemented grand promises of governments dating back to the 1970s, during the regime of Gen. Yakubu Gowon, is an endeavor that is nostalgic. As it’s often said, yesterday’s news becomes tomorrow’s history. Hence, I decided to compile my published articles from 1999 to 2019 into a tome titled, ‘Leading From The Streets…” for easy reference.
In my assessment, what sets President Tinubu apart from past presidents is their failure to execute the development plans they proposed. Unlike them, President Tinubu is not just formulating plans, he’s actively implementing them to effect real change and propel Nigeria forward. Despite facing resistance from organized labor, who sometimes make unrealistic demands, such demanding half a million as minimum wage, fancy paying our drivers, as well as frustration from Nigerians feeling nostalgic about pre-Tinubu era, he remains resolute in his decision-making. This resistance is exacerbated by opposition parties.
As the saying goes, the morning determines the evening. There are promising signs that President Tinubu’s administration is on the right path regarding policy formulation and implementation. However, the task of revitalizing the economy remains ongoing.
While the public rightly demands a reduction in the high cost of governance, President Tinubu’s administration stands commendably apart from its predecessor due to its proactive stance against corruption. Any instances of corruption, such as those identified in the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs under Dr. Betta Edu have been swiftly addressed through proper procedures.
The only aspect of corruption for which the opposition parties have been thumping their noses at President Tinubu’s administration is that some people that have been indicted for corruption in the past, especially ex-governors, are currently part of the incumbent government.
As to be expected, the ruling party has been countering by stating that indictment is not conviction. Since those alleged to have been indicted are not convicts, they are not stripped of their rights to serve in public office.
Regardless of the bickering, President Tinubu is well aware that if he succeeds in persuading Nigerians to look beyond the headlines to behold the silver lining in the horizon as opposed to succumbing to the temporary pangs of hunger and despair currently giving them discomfort, and get the poverty battered and weary Nigerians to cut his administration a slack, without a scintilla of doubt, there would not be a wriggle room for him to escape scathing criticism twenty months after his ascension to power in Aso Rock Villa, if there is nothing close to uhuru for Nigerians by end of 2025.
But given President Tinubu’s reputation for being a turnaround master, using the sterling story of Lagos State under his watch as a barometer, all things being equal, relief may soon be coming the way of Nigerians when Tinubu’s socioeconomic policies turn full circle.
• Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former Commissioner in Delta State government.
To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng
